Use hypothesis-comparison

Compare rival explanations for an observation with analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH)

Compare rival explanations for an observation with analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) — list the hypotheses and the evidence, build a consistency matrix (consistent / inconsistent / neutral), rank hypotheses by how little evidence contradicts them rather than how much supports them, name the diagnostic evidence and the linchpins, and say which next observation would tell the leaders apart.

Reach for it when the user asks "why did X happen", "which explanation fits the evidence", "what's really causing this", wants to stop arguing over a favourite theory, or says "compare these hypotheses", "competing explanations", "ACH".

Install it

npx skilldrop-cli install hypothesis-comparison                 # Claude Code, your user folder
npx skilldrop-cli install hypothesis-comparison --project       # Claude Code, this repo
npx skilldrop-cli install hypothesis-comparison --ide cursor    # or kiro, codex, antigravity, copilot

It is part of the Research pack: --pack research installs it with its neighbours.

It ships scripts, so it needs Python 3 (standard library only, nothing to install). What they may touch is declared in its manifest.

Ask for it

Say it the way you would to a colleague. Requests like these route to it:

• "Our signup rate fell 25% last week and we have four theories. Which one does the evidence actually support?"
• "Run an analysis of competing hypotheses on why our API latency doubled after the migration"
• "Build a consistency matrix for these rival explanations of the churn spike and tell me which one survives"
• "The team keeps arguing about what caused the drop in NPS. Help me weigh the competing explanations against the evidence."

Requests like these belong to a different skill, so it shouldn't answer them:

• "Compare Snowflake, BigQuery and Databricks for our analytics platform and recommend one"
• "Do a SWOT on entering the Canadian market"
• "Summarise these five papers on remote work and productivity, with citations"

If another skill answers instead, ask for this one by name: "use hypothesis-comparison".

Check what you get

A good result:

• At least four rival hypotheses, including a measurement one, each a sentence that could be false.
• Evidence rows are observations with a source, including at least one absence where one exists. Nothing in the matrix is evidence the user didn't supply, except rows tagged [assumption].
• The ranking is by inconsistency. The write-up never argues for a hypothesis by counting its C ratings.
• Non-diagnostic evidence is named and set aside, not used as support.
• Linchpins are named and checked: the rows whose removal changes the leader, with where each came from.
• The conclusion carries a confidence word and a reason, and stays tentative when one row holds it up.
• The next observation discriminates between the top two, with the result each one predicts.

See a worked example

• conversion drop

Use something else when

• Choosing between technologies, vendors or approaches for the future — this ranks explanations, not options
• Market or competitive position, SWOT, Five Forces — strategy-analysis
• Planning what evidence to collect before you have any — research-plan
• Summarising what a set of sources says — source-synthesis
• Reviewing someone's written argument for weak spots — doc-critique
• Writing up an incident's timeline and causes once they're known — postmortem-generator

Where a loop runs it

• Stage compare of the research loop, where gate G7 decides

Next

• SKILL.md, the instructions the agent reads
• Its page on the site
• Related: doc-critique, postmortem-generator, research-plan, source-synthesis, strategy-analysis

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